Because the U.S. Treasury bailed out and backstopped banks (by injecting equity into them in late 2008, and later committing to provide public capital to any banks that failed the stress tests and could not raise private capital), the U.S. unemployment rate was lower at the end of 2010 than it would have been without these measures.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Alberto Alesina |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Katherine Baicker |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Raj Chetty |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Janet Currie |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Angus Deaton |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Macro performance depends partly on credit from banks, which would have otherwise been impaired. Europe has a related growth issue now,
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 Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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If the banking system had collapsed, unemployment would certainly have been higher in 2010.
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 Claudia Goldin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Austan Goolsbee |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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the fact it was necessary doesn't mean we should be happy about it
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 Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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There is some strong evidence that the lending channel is real. See the below link.
-see background information here |
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 Robert Hall |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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There were much better policies, but what was done was better than nothing, give the bad policies that preceded.
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 Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Without Fed intervention the banking system would have collapsed.
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 Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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They could have been tougher on pay and dividends, but just look across the pond to see a much worse alternative way of proceeding.
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 Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The Fed would have purchased more private assets without TARP, and who knows what the Fed/Congress would have tried instead.
-see background information here |
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 Edward Lazear |
Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Maurice Obstfeld |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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This statement reflects my best judgment, based on a range of macroeconomic literature, but it would be difficult to prove beyond a doubt.
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 Cecilia Rouse |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Emmanuel Saez |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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It is hard to imagine the mess we would still be in if most of our large banks had failed.
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 Hyun Song Shin |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 James Stock |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Nancy Stokey |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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See Ch 7 of Friedman & Schwartz's Monetary History. It's fortunate we had a Central Banker who'd read it and had the courage to act on it.
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 Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Not my area but it seems like it had to have helped.
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 Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Luigi Zingales |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The question presumes Paulson’s forced alternative. If the only choice is between evil and Armageddon, evil might look ok.
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