Almanac of American Politics Profile
Virginia remains one of the more Republican states in presidential races, but not as solidly Republican as it once was. One of the redder of red states for more than 40 years, Democrats like Senator James Webb have been winning here in recent years. The large African-American population, along with the Washington suburbs in the northern part of the state leaning more and more Democratic, suggests that in 2008 Barack Obama has a chance to win the state.
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In 1996, Bill Clinton lost here by only 48 percent to 46 percent. In 2000, George W. Bush won by 52 percent to 44 percent. In 2004 Democrats, heartened by Mark Warner’s victory in the 2001 governor election, targeted the state early; John Kerry spent $1 million in advertising here in the spring and early summer. But in August the polls showed Bush well ahead, and Virginia dropped off the target list. Bush carried the state by a seemingly comfortable margin, 54 percent to 45 percent. But compared to 2000, he lost ground in Northern Virginia, which he lost 51 percent to 48 percent, while gaining ground in Hampton Roads (53 percent-46 percent) and the rest of the state (58 percent-41 percent).