India-Pakistan war: A chilling 2019 study had predicted a nuclear war in 2025 and what could happen

Tensions between India and Pakistan have sharply escalated after a horrific terror attack in Jammu and Kashmir’s Pahalgam last month, which claimed 26 lives. Amid growing fears of war, several Pakistani military and political figures have openly threatened to use nuclear weapons.

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Amid this volatile backdrop, a 2019 research paper published by Routledge is drawing renewed attention. The study eerily predicted a nuclear conflict between India and Pakistan in the year 2025, sparked by a high-casualty terror attack.

India Pak War Prediction: How the War Would Start

The researchers theorised that a major terrorist attack—initially imagined as an assault on the Indian Parliament—would provoke India to mobilize troops along the Line of Control (LoC), prompting Pakistan to respond in kind. As tensions boil over, skirmishes and casualties on both sides would lead to rapid escalation.

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“As happened in January 2002, both sides mobilize and deploy their troops... Skirmishes break out, and there are deaths on both sides,” the paper stated.

India Pak War Prediction: The First Use of Nuclear Weapons

According to the study, once Indian forces begin advancing into Pakistani territory, Pakistan’s generals, fearing a conventional defeat, resort to nuclear weapons. Here's what the paper had predicted:

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Day 1: Pakistan uses 10 tactical nuclear weapons (each with a yield of 5 kilotons) within its own borders against Indian tanks.

Day 2: Pakistan launches 15 more tactical nukes. In response, India uses 20 strategic nuclear airbursts targeting Pakistani military installations and nuclear depots.

These airbursts cause massive fires and smoke plumes, similar to those seen after the bombing of Hiroshima or the San Francisco earthquake fires of 1906.

India Pak War Prediction: Unstoppable Escalation

Rather than halting the war, India's escalation prompts a deadly third day:

Pakistan responds with 30 airbursts over Indian garrisons, naval bases, and urban airfields, plus 15 more tactical strikes.

India retaliates with nuclear strikes on 10 Pakistani military sites in cities.

The paper describes a catastrophic chain reaction: anger, panic, miscommunication, and rigid protocols on both sides leading to a full-blown nuclear exchange.

Over the next three days, Pakistan uses its entire strategic arsenal of 120 nuclear weapons, targeting Indian cities.

India responds with 70 nuclear airbursts, while keeping 100 weapons in reserve to deter China—ironically, after its deterrence against Pakistan has already failed.

Global Fallout: Tens of Millions Dead, Billions Affected

Assuming both countries possess around 250 nuclear weapons each, the researchers warn of catastrophic consequences:

50 to 125 million immediate deaths, depending on weapon yield.

Major Indian and Pakistani cities would be completely destroyed or rendered uninhabitable.

Infrastructure collapse: healthcare, transportation, energy, and finance would be in ruins.

But the devastation wouldn't stop there. The climatic effects of the smoke and firestorms would impact the entire planet, potentially triggering famines that could affect billions.

“The ramifications would be enormous and global in scope,” the paper concludes.