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Figure 13. Heterogeneous regression patterns of the first SVD mode between the previous LMO0 MAM (a) northern (north of 10°S) and (b) southern (south of 10°S) IO SSTs and LM3 JJA precipitation. Values shown in the parentheses indicate the percentage of SST-precipitation covariance explained by the indi- vidual modes and correlation between two modes. Spatial correlation (SCORR) between EOF/SVD first and second modes of LM3 JJA precipitation is shown in the other parentheses.

Figure 13 Heterogeneous regression patterns of the first SVD mode between the previous LMO0 MAM (a) northern (north of 10°S) and (b) southern (south of 10°S) IO SSTs and LM3 JJA precipitation. Values shown in the parentheses indicate the percentage of SST-precipitation covariance explained by the indi- vidual modes and correlation between two modes. Spatial correlation (SCORR) between EOF/SVD first and second modes of LM3 JJA precipitation is shown in the other parentheses.

Related Figures (14)

Figure 1. Regression (mm/d) of JJA precipitation against the principal components (PCs) of EOF (a) first mode, (b) second mode, (c) third mode, and time series of EOF PCs (bottom).
Figure 1. Regression (mm/d) of JJA precipitation against the principal components (PCs) of EOF (a) first mode, (b) second mode, (c) third mode, and time series of EOF PCs (bottom).
Lead & Lag Corr. Coeff. Bet. NINO3.4 SST & JJA Precip PCs Figure 2. Lead and lag correlations between seasonal mean Nifio3.4 SST and PCs of JJA precipitation PC of first EOF mode is in black, second mode in red, and third mode in blue. The negative sign indicates seasons in the year prior to the target year.
Lead & Lag Corr. Coeff. Bet. NINO3.4 SST & JJA Precip PCs Figure 2. Lead and lag correlations between seasonal mean Nifio3.4 SST and PCs of JJA precipitation PC of first EOF mode is in black, second mode in red, and third mode in blue. The negative sign indicates seasons in the year prior to the target year.
Figure 3. Regression of JJA 850 mb winds (vectors) and SST (shading) against (a) EOF PC1 and (b) EOF PC2 of JJA precipitation. Values exceeding the 95% (90%) confidence level are highlighted (shaded) for winds (SST).
Figure 3. Regression of JJA 850 mb winds (vectors) and SST (shading) against (a) EOF PC1 and (b) EOF PC2 of JJA precipitation. Values exceeding the 95% (90%) confidence level are highlighted (shaded) for winds (SST).
Figure 4. Regression (°C) of grid-point MAM SST against (a) EOF PCI and (b) EOF PC2 of JJA precipitation. Values exceeding the 90% confidence level are shaded.
Figure 4. Regression (°C) of grid-point MAM SST against (a) EOF PCI and (b) EOF PC2 of JJA precipitation. Values exceeding the 90% confidence level are shaded.
Figure 5. (top) Lead and lag correlations between EOF PC1 of MAM SST and seasonal means of Nifio3.4 SST. Entire IO SST is in black, and northern and southern IO SSTs are in green and red, respec- tively. The negative sign indicates seasons in the year prior to the target year. (bottom) Time series of SON Nifio3.4 SST and EOF PC1 of MAM IO SST. Nifio3.4 SST is in black, entire IO in blue, and north- ern and southern IO SSTs are in green and red, respectively.
Figure 5. (top) Lead and lag correlations between EOF PC1 of MAM SST and seasonal means of Nifio3.4 SST. Entire IO SST is in black, and northern and southern IO SSTs are in green and red, respec- tively. The negative sign indicates seasons in the year prior to the target year. (bottom) Time series of SON Nifio3.4 SST and EOF PC1 of MAM IO SST. Nifio3.4 SST is in black, entire IO in blue, and north- ern and southern IO SSTs are in green and red, respectively.
Figure 6. Differences in 850 mb winds and SST between climatology and warm cases of (a—d) northern and (e-h) southern IO exceeding 0.50 in spring. Warm cases of NIO include 1988, 1991, 1998, 2001, 2002, 2003, and 2005; those of southern IO include 1983, 1988, 1989, 1995, 1998, and 2002.
Figure 6. Differences in 850 mb winds and SST between climatology and warm cases of (a—d) northern and (e-h) southern IO exceeding 0.50 in spring. Warm cases of NIO include 1988, 1991, 1998, 2001, 2002, 2003, and 2005; those of southern IO include 1983, 1988, 1989, 1995, 1998, and 2002.
Figure 7. (a) Climatology of 850 mb winds and precipitation and (b) difference between climatology and warm cases of southern IO in JJA.
Figure 7. (a) Climatology of 850 mb winds and precipitation and (b) difference between climatology and warm cases of southern IO in JJA.
Figure 8. Regression of precipitation (mm/d) against EOF PC1 of JJA precipitation for (a) lead month 0 (LMO), (b) lead month 3 (LM3), (c) AMIP, and (d) time series of EOF PCs.
Figure 8. Regression of precipitation (mm/d) against EOF PC1 of JJA precipitation for (a) lead month 0 (LMO), (b) lead month 3 (LM3), (c) AMIP, and (d) time series of EOF PCs.
Lead & Lag Corr. Bet. JJA Precip PC1 & NINO3.4 SST Figure 9. Lead and lag correlations between PC1 of JJA precipitation and seasonal means of Nifio3.4 SST. Observations are in black, LMO in blue, LM3 in red, and AMIP in green. The negative sign indicates seasons in the year prior to the target year.
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Figure 10. Regression of JIA 850 mb winds (vectors) and SST (shading) against PC1 of JJA precipi- tation for (a) LMO, (b) LM3, and (c) AMIP. Values exceeding the 95% (90%) confidence level are high- lighted (shaded) for winds (SST).
Figure 10. Regression of JIA 850 mb winds (vectors) and SST (shading) against PC1 of JJA precipi- tation for (a) LMO, (b) LM3, and (c) AMIP. Values exceeding the 95% (90%) confidence level are high- lighted (shaded) for winds (SST).
Figure 11. Regression (°C) of grid point MAM SST against PC1 of JJA precipitation for (a) LMO, (b) LM3, and (c) AMIP. Values exceeding the 90% confidence level are shaded.
Figure 11. Regression (°C) of grid point MAM SST against PC1 of JJA precipitation for (a) LMO, (b) LM3, and (c) AMIP. Values exceeding the 90% confidence level are shaded.
Figure 12. Regression of JJA 850 mb winds (vectors) and precipitation (shading) against PC1 of MAM (a—c) northern and (d—f) southern IO SSTs for LM0, LM3, and AMIP. Values exceeding the 90% con- fidence level are shaded.
Figure 12. Regression of JJA 850 mb winds (vectors) and precipitation (shading) against PC1 of MAM (a—c) northern and (d—f) southern IO SSTs for LM0, LM3, and AMIP. Values exceeding the 90% con- fidence level are shaded.
Figure 14. Lead and lag correlations between seasonal means of Nifio3.4 SST and PC1 of LMO MAM SST. Entire IO SST is in black, and northern and southern IO SSTs are in green and red, respectively. The negative sign indicates seasons in the year prior to the target year.
Figure 14. Lead and lag correlations between seasonal means of Nifio3.4 SST and PC1 of LMO MAM SST. Entire IO SST is in black, and northern and southern IO SSTs are in green and red, respectively. The negative sign indicates seasons in the year prior to the target year.
Figure 15. Schematic diagram summarizing the observed variability and hypothesized linkages between the SIO and ENSO. The summary includes the interaction of the mean state (solid lines) with the anom- alous circulation (dashed lines). The thick red (blue) arrows indicate SST warming (cooling) weakening (strenghing) the mean flow through the wind-evaporation feedback over the SIO.
Figure 15. Schematic diagram summarizing the observed variability and hypothesized linkages between the SIO and ENSO. The summary includes the interaction of the mean state (solid lines) with the anom- alous circulation (dashed lines). The thick red (blue) arrows indicate SST warming (cooling) weakening (strenghing) the mean flow through the wind-evaporation feedback over the SIO.
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