Australia's next prime minister will inherit a 'world in disarray' and must adapt quickly
In a more uncertain world, experts say the next prime minister will need to grapple with the crumbling of the foundations that Australian foreign policy has been built on. (ABC News: Emma Machan)
The global rules-based order is shifting in a way not seen for decades, with some experts saying the next government inherits a "world in disarray".
There are concerns Australia has wasted time prepping its defence capabilities at a time when China seeks to become a dominant force in the Indo-Pacific.
The next federal government faces a world with drastic US policy changes, trade disputes, and ongoing wars in Europe and the Middle East.
Security alliances are being challenged, and economic security is volatile, prompting voters to question what this means for Australia's place in the world.
The ABC asked a group of former industry players, analysts, economists, and defence experts for their advice on what the next Australian prime minister needs to address first to ensure the country is stable, safe and successful.
Challenges are mounting
Peter Jennings is the director of Strategic Analysis Australia and former deputy secretary for strategy in the Defence Department.
He said Australia was in "a very difficult situation".
"We're dealing with the consequences of decades of under-investment in defence,"he said.
Peter Jennings, director of Strategic Analysis Australia, said the Australian Defence Force was losing capabilities very quickly. (AAP: Mick Tsikas)
China was seeking to up-end the global order and make itself the dominant strategic player in the Indo-Pacific, while global "bad actors" such as Russia, North Korea and Iran were "out to create mayhem in their immediate regions", he said.
Mr Jennings said the next government needed to stop wasting time.
Speed up military capabilities
The next three years would be crucial for building stronger defence capabilities and alliances to help deter China in particular, he said.
But right now, the defence force was "losing capabilities very quickly".
"All of the big investments don't actually bear fruit for another 10 or 15 years in terms of real military capability,"he said.
Experts agree that Australia needs to boost its military capabilities. (Department of Defence: Lance Corporal Riley Blennerhassett)
He singled out AUKUS as being "a real crisis" for the next government, warning it was in danger "of slowly sinking into the quicksand".
Australia needed to focus on short-term solutions and local production that was driven by the private sector.
Find a way to deal with Trump
Mr Jennings said Prime Minister Anthony Albanese's strategy to deal with the Trump administration had worked quite well so far.
That was to "remain at arms-length … But we can't ignore it any longer".
There are concerns about Donald Trump's self interests and whether the US would remain a reliable ally. (AP: Evan Vucci)
The US is Australia's most vital strategic ally and represents one of its most important economic relationships.
But there were dramatic changes occurring under the Trump administration, leading to uncertainty about the reliability of the US as a reliable military ally.
"We've got to find a way to deal with these folks that gives us some confidence that the alliance is going to remain, which I think will,"Mr Jennings said.
Stability amid international volatility
Sean Turnell is an honorary professor of economics at Macquarie University and a non-resident fellow in the South-East Asia program at the Lowy Institute.
Professor Turnell was held hostage for 650 days in Myanmar after being accused of espionage during his time working as an economic adviser to the now-deposed leader Aung San Suu Kyi.
"The biggest thing we face is a highly volatile international economy," he said.
"That's largely policy driven, in part, from the volatility of the Trump administration."
Sean Turnell has been a senior analyst at the Reserve Bank of Australia, and said he was concerned with the lack of drive to grow the economy. ( ABC News: Keana Naughton )
The extent to which arbitrary policymaking spills over international financial markets could have "have huge implications on the Australian economy", Professor Turnell said.
He wants the next prime minister to get serious about future-proofing the budget and growing the economy.
Contingency-proof the budget
Right now, the economy was doing well, but neither party was addressing what may lie ahead, Professor Turnell said.
"It worries me. It's not time to sort of slacken off," he said.
"Australia is entering into a new era. The old things that we were dependent on for decades and really took for granted are now in doubt."
He said the next government needed to create a "fortress balance sheet" and get the budget in a place where it could withstand the volatile global environment.
"Neither party seems to be directly addressing this issue," he said.
"It seems to be more situation normal and they are extending large debts in all sorts of areas."
Opposition Leader Peter Dutton announced an increase in defence spending but details have been thin. (ABC News: Ian Cutmore)
Economic and national security are closely entwined.
If the budget was in the right place, it would make space for increased defence spending, Professor Turnell said.
Labor has not announced any election commitments specific to defence.
The Coalition said it would spend an extra $21 billion between now and 2030 to reach its goal of lifting overall military spending.
"The other thing I worry about is that there doesn't seem to be much focus on how to drive economic growth," Professor Turnell said.
"It seems to be more about how to divide up the pie rather than increase the size."
The PM's first visits since the 1980s
The first international visit taken by a prime minister often says a lot about the country's most important relationships.
Most experts and analysts who spoke to the ABC said the first visit of a newly-elected prime minister should be in the Indo-Pacific.
The first phone call should be to US President Donald Trump, they said.
Since Paul Keating in 1992, almost every newly-elected prime minister has made Indonesia their first official international visit.
Julia Gillard bucked the trend by heading to Afghanistan as her first port of call.
Then, Anthony Albanese headed to Japan for the Quad meeting, which had already been scheduled, days after he was sworn in as prime minister.
Jennifer Parker is a former naval officer and maritime security expert at the ANU National Security College and has more than 20 years' experience at the Australian Department of Defence.
She said the choice of where the next prime minister visits after May 3 will be decisive.
"I certainly think there is something significant in an Australian prime minister visiting Indonesia very quickly following an election,"she said.
"I think also a visit or some sort of direct call quickly with the president of the United States is important."
Going beyond simple rhetoric
Ms Parker believes both sides of the political divide need to better address the significance of the global shifts.
"I'm just not sure that that message is getting through … we need to explain to the Australian public just how dire the threat could be,"she said.
Jennifer Parker from the Australian National University's National Security College said both major parties have failed to explain the need to boost defence spending to the public. (Supplied)
Ms Parker said the key role of the next government would be to have a whole-of-nation view on defence.
Assert Australia as a reliable partner
Australia needed to highlight its achievements as a reliable middle power in the region, Ms Parker said.
"That requires investment in both our diplomatic architecture, which includes our aid investment, but also our defence architecture," she said.
She singled out Indonesia, saying strengthening the relationship with our close neighbour was paramount — both due to geography, and because two-thirds of Australia's maritime trade goes through the Indonesian archipelago, including most of our fuel.
Fill in defence gaps
Ms Parker said the next government would need to bolster defence spending, to plug significant gaps in Australia's capabilities.
She blamed both sides of politics for failing to explain the need for increased spending to the Australian public.
There was often the idea that Australia was too isolated from the world to be attacked, but distance could also be a weakness, she said.
It meant that supply lines, such as ammunition and maritime access, could be quickly cut off.
She added that moving away from the US relationship was not the way to go — America remained a reliable partner.
"The messaging that we're seeing from the current Trump administration is that the Indo-Pacific matters to the US," she said.
"They need Australia because of our geography."
Australia faces 'lonelier' world
Richard Maude is a distinguished policy fellow at the Asia Society Policy Institute and a former deputy secretary in the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade.
"The next Australian government inherits a world in disarray," Mr Maude said.
"The foundations on which Australian foreign policy has traditionally been placed are all crumbling."
Richard Maude is a former deputy secretary in the Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade. He believes Australia must prioritise relationships in the Indo-Pacific. (Supplied)
Mr Maude said the major parties were lacking any compelling vision of how Australia could successfully navigate "a lonelier and more dangerous world".
With no comprehensive plan, it seemed Australia was hoping to "ride its luck".
The to-do list for the next prime minister was long, but he narrowed it down to a few key points.
Invest in diverse regional and global partnerships
Fixing the nation's finances and making space in the budget to increase defence spending was a key priority, Mr Maude said.
But Australia also needed to hedge against a "disruptive and narrowly self-interested" United States by investing more in a diverse set of regional and global partnerships.
"If you strip out the politics, both major parties have actually invested pretty heavily in core relationships within our own region, and we really need to keep doing that," Mr Maude said.
He said key relationships with Japan, Korea, India and Indonesia would need to keep being prioritised.
The Albanese government has put in a significant effort with Pacific nations since taking office in 2022. (Supplied)
He also highlighted the Pacific, saying that we had tried to "lift our game" in the region through successive Australian governments.
European relationships were also becoming more important, especially the "core group" of France, Germany, the United Kingdom and Poland.
"Those countries, in many ways, now share a much closer alignment of interest and values than we do with our alliance partner, America, at least under President Donald Trump," he said.
LoadingAdapting to a changing world
Gorana Grgić, from the University of Sydney, specialising in US politics and foreign policy, said the next Australian government needed to continue to deepen and expand partnerships with other countries.
"The next Australian prime minister must prioritise making Australia more resilient in an era of profound global uncertainty and the fracturing of the rules-based international order," she said.
Australia must become more resilient
Gorana Grgić from the University of Sydney said Australia needed to be ready to adapt and be flexible with its foreign policy in a changing world. (Supplied: University of Sydney)
Dr Grgić believes whoever leads the country after the election on May 3 will need to navigate a very different international landscape to previous modern Australian prime ministers.
The current global landscape is marked by intense strategic competition, increasing fragmentation, and the contesting of established rules and norms.
"Australia's diplomacy must be anchored in a clear articulation of its interests as a liberal democracy and a firm commitment to standing up for its values," she said.
"At the same time, there should be no illusions about the need for flexibility in foreign policy, given the shifting nature of the international system."
World order has already changed
Lydia Khalil is the program director of the Transnational Challenges Program at the Lowy Institute and specialises in international relations, national security and strategic intelligence analysis.
She echoed the sentiment shared by other experts about the worrying trend of international rules and norms being up-ended by shifts in the United States.
"The next leader will have to prepare Australians that we are entering into an entirely new and still evolving global order,"she said.
Lydia Khalil is the Program Director of the Transnational Challenges Program at the Lowy Institute. She said leaders needed to clarify the importance of democracy to the public. (Supplied)
Actively safeguarding our democracy
The next prime minister must communicate the value of Australia's democracy to the public, Ms Khalil said.
She said that the world was going through a significant democratic recession and that democracies had been in decline for the past 17 years.
"Despite our challenges, Australia is a rare bright spot; our democracy is worth protecting and should not be taken for granted," she said.
"We must ensure that citizens are engaged — not just be campaigned to — and that our robust civil society and institutions are not only safeguarded, but strengthened."
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