United Kingdom Composite PMI

The S&P Global UK Composite PMI fell to 48.5 in April of 2025 from 51.5 in March, revised slightly higher from the flash reading of 48.2, but remaining well below the initial market expectations of 50.4 to reflect the first contraction in British economic activity since October of 2023. The decline in activity was noted in manufacturing (45.4 vs 44.9 in March) and the services sector (49 vs 52.5), with the contraction in the latter being the first in 17 months and marking a sharp contrast with initial expectations. New business intake at the aggregate level fell for the fourth straight month, with service providers citing weaker client confidence due to turmoil in financial markets and tariffs from the US. In the meantime, employment levels continued to fall as some firms refrained from backfilling roles, as lower demand for business magnified the increase in wages and National Insurance contributions. Looking forward, business confidence was the lowest since 2022.

The S&P Global UK Composite PMI fell to 48.2 in April of 2025 from 51.5 in in the previous month, contrasting sharply with market expectations of 50.4 to reflect the first contraction in British economic activity since October of 2023, according to a flash estimate. The decline in activity was noted in manufacturing (44 vs 44.9 in March) and the services sector (48.9 vs 52.5), with the contraction in the latter being the first in 17 months and marking a sharp contrast with expectations. New work declined for a fifth month as firms cited uncertainty with US tariff policies, which especially impacted export orders from factories. Lower workloads and rising payroll costs from new minimum wage and National Insurance contributions drove staffing levels to fall for a seventh month and input costs to continue rising. Consequently, business activity expectations weakened sharply both for manufacturers and service providers, with the confidence index falling to its lowest in over two years.

The S&P Global UK Composite PMI registered 51.5 in March 2025, revised down from the preliminary estimate of 52.0 but still above February’s 50.5. While the reading signaled a relatively modest expansion, it marked the fastest growth since October 2024, driven by a pickup in service sector activity. In contrast, manufacturing output contracted sharply. Total new orders declined for the fourth consecutive month, though the pace of job cuts slowed to its weakest since November. Meanwhile, cost pressures remained elevated.