Will MVA win or Mahayuti? These key factors will decide

Bhavika Jain Alka Dhupkar
TIMESOFINDIA.COM Nov 18, 2024, 21:03 IST IST

While Mahayuti is leaning on welfare schemes, a communally charged campaign and Modi’s leadership strength, anti-incumbency is bolstering MVA’s regional pride-focused campaign

The upcoming Maharashtra Assembly elections are shaping up to be a thrilling contest, with the odds equally balanced between the two key alliances — the ruling Mahayuti and the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA).
Over the past five years, Maharashtra’s political landscape has been defined by chaos, with three governments, three chief ministers, and four deputy CMs. Splits within the Shiv Sena and the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) have further redrawn the state’s political map, resulting in surprising alliances.

The lack of coordination was also seen when the Congress leaders were caught unawares by the “urgent meeting” called by Thackeray at his residence in October “forcing” it to cancel its own Central Election Committee (CEC) meeting. The infighting has also led to the alliance not announcing its CM face.Also read: Real Sena, Real NCP: 89 seats will decide Maharashtra’s 2 big battles3 reasons why Mahayuti can winThe Mahayuti alliance, formed after Eknath Shinde’s 2022 rebellion against the Shiv Sena leadership and joined by Ajit Pawar’s split from the NCP in 2023, faces a complex electoral battleground. Despite political and social divisions, the alliance has leveraged key strategies to strengthen its position.Many CM faces: The Mahayuti is led by three prominent contenders for the chief minister's post: current CM Eknath Shinde, known for welfare schemes and aggressive image-building; Ajit Pawar, recognised for his administrative acumen; and BJP’s Devendra Fadnavis, a two-time former CM.Fadnavis emphasised that the alliance has a clear policy for selecting the next CM, dismissing speculation about a “musical chair” arrangement. The BJP is contesting 149 seats, Shinde’s faction 81, and Pawar’s faction 56. Shinde downplayed internal lobbying, stating the focus is on winning based on their work and welfare schemes. In 2019, the undivided Shiv Sena won 56 seats, with 41 MLAs now part of Shinde’s camp. Similarly, the NCP factions are contesting directly against each other in 36 constituencies, further complicating the dynamics. Welfare promises: The Mahayuti has aggressively promoted its welfare schemes through widespread advertising, warning voters that a change in government could jeopardise these benefits. These schemes target diverse demographics, from students to senior citizens, creating an emotional connection with voters.Political analyst Surendra Jondhale described this as “politicisation of emotions”, a tactic executed with intensity. The Ladki Bahin Yojana, which provides ₹1,500-a-month to over 2 crore women, has been a key highlight. While NCP founder Sharad Pawar criticised the scheme as ineffective amid rising crimes against women, Jondhale noted the opposition’s initial confusion about how to counter it. Eventually, the MVA extended similar promises in their manifesto, signalling concern over the scheme’s potential electoral impact.Campaign strategy: The Mahayuti has sharpened its attacks on the opposition, branding their narrative — such as claims of \"Constitution in danger\" — as baseless. Following their Lok Sabha performance and the BJP’s Haryana win, the alliance has gained additional momentum. Santosh Pradhan, a senior journalist, highlighted the Mahayuti’s effective use of government agencies to promote welfare schemes, especially through targeted communication with women voters. In contrast, the MVA’s campaign has been largely reactive, focusing on criticism of the ruling alliance rather than presenting a proactive vision.But why Mahayuti could also loseDespite its robust campaign machinery, the Mahayuti faces internal divisions and external challenges that could undermine its electoral prospects. The BJP's slogans, such as “Ek hain to safe hain” and “Batenge to Katenge”, have sparked dissent within the alliance. Senior figures like Nitin Gadkari, Pankaja Munde, and Ajit Pawar have openly distanced themselves from these messages. Further tensions surfaced when Devendra Fadnavis remarked that Ajit Pawar failed to bring enough votes to the Mahayuti in the Lok Sabha elections, exposing rifts in the coalition.At the grassroots level, BJP and Sena (Shinde faction) leaders, who previously opposed the NCP, are now struggling to align with Ajit Pawar’s candidates, adding friction within the alliance. Deepak Bhatuse, a senior journalist, observed that there is uncertainty about whether the BJP and Shinde’s Sena can effectively complement each other. “Unlike the MVA, Mahayuti leaders are more focused on their own party campaigns, as the ‘strike rate’—the number of seats each party wins—will determine their influence in the alliance,” he says.Fadnavis’s strategy of accommodating rebels, as seen during the Lok Sabha elections, has helped to some extent, but Ajit Pawar’s inclusion remains a point of contention, raising questions about coalition stability.Also, the BJP, despite consistently winning the most MLAs in Maharashtra since 2014, has yet to form a government independently, leaving it reliant on alliances. This dependence, coupled with allegations of financial mismanagement, has fueled opposition narratives like “50 khoke, sarv okay [50 crores, all okay]” and accusations of betrayal by Shinde’s and Pawar’s factions. The BJP’s perceived “outsider” status in Maharashtra continues to haunt the alliance. Concerns about major projects being shifted to Gujarat, as seen with the International Financial Centre, have bolstered regional identity politics. The MVA has countered the BJP’s “Jai Sriram” slogans with “Jai Shivaji” — a narrative steeped in Maharashtra’s cultural pride.Opposition’s message is clear: “To protect Maharashtra, reject Mahayuti.” This has put the ruling coalition on the defensive, forcing its leaders to justify their alliances rather than promoting a cohesive vision for the state. Uddhav Thackeray and MVA leaders have effectively used the politics of Maharashtra’s identity to challenge the Mahayuti, resonating with voters wary of perceived threats to the state’s autonomy and interests. With internal discord and a strong opposition narrative, the Mahayuti finds itself battling not only the MVA but also its own contradictions, leaving it vulnerable as the elections approach.","@type":"NewsArticle","mainEntityOfPage":"https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/toi-plus/politics/will-mva-win-or-mahayuti-these-key-factors-will-decide/articleshow/115421131.cms","inLanguage":"en","headline":"Will MVA win or Mahayuti? These key factors will decide","keywords":"mva,mahayuti,maharashtra polls,maharashtra election,maha vikas aghadi","url":"https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/toi-plus/politics/will-mva-win-or-mahayuti-these-key-factors-will-decide/articleshow/115421131.cms","datePublished":"2024-11-18T21:03:00+05:30","dateModified":"2024-11-18T21:03:00+05:30","description":"Politics News: While Mahayuti is leaning on welfare schemes, a communally charged campaign and Modi’s leadership strength, anti-incumbency is bolstering MVA’s regio","thumbnailUrl":"https://static.toiimg.com/thumb/msid-115423371,width-1280,height-720,imgsize-81950,resizemode-6,overlay-toi_sw,pt-32,y_pad-40/photo.jpg","author":{"@type":"Person","name":"Bhavika Jain,Alka Dhupkar","url":"https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/toireporter/author-Bhavika-Jain-479227926.cms"},"publisher":{"@type":"Organization","name":"Times Of India","url":"https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https://static.toiimg.com/photo/msid-92877370/92877370.jpg","width":600,"height":60}},"image":{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https://static.toiimg.com/thumb/resizemode-4,width-1280,height-720,msid-115423371/115423371.jpg","width":1280,"height":720},"isAccessibleForFree":false,"isPartOf":{"@type":["CreativeWork","Product"],"name":"Times of india","productID":"timesofindia.com:showcase"},"hasPart":{"@type":"WebPageElement","isAccessibleForFree":false,"cssSelector":".paywall"}}