Can Trump Tame Bibi?

One could have hoped that after 12 days of mutual skirmishing between Israel and Iran, the exclamation points would outweigh the question marks regarding the future of West Asia. But in this region, as always, nothing is as it seems, and nothing is as it sounds. Leaders from different countries, each driven by their own interests, are spreading unequivocal “facts” that, to this moment, remain unclear in their accuracy, reliability, or actual reflection of reality.From the Iranians, nothing can be expected: their diplomacy of lies has become infamous, and one would have to be either truly naive or blind to believe the blatant disinformation spread by the Ayatollahs’ murderous regime — on nearly every topic. This regime has turned falsehood into its primary tool of operation. Even during the war, the Iranians’ hollow threats stood in stark contrast to their poor performance in the ballistic attacks they launched against Israeli civilians. While Israeli Air Force pilots targeted military or strategic assets, the Iranians stuck to their habitual policy of terror, aiming for residential neighbourhoods, hospitals, and civilian centres in general. All the while, their announcements sought to convince Iranian citizens that they were raining fire and brimstone on sensitive Israeli facilities and inflicting powerful blows on the Zionist enemy. The same logic applies to their conduct regarding the nuclear programme: only pathological liars could build an underground facility buried 300 feet beneath the earth, scatter countless nuclear installations across Iranian territory, construct ballistic missiles and factories that produce weapons of mass destruction — and still claim it is all for peaceful medical, scientific and civilian purposes.On the other side stand Netanyahu and Trump, two leaders who managed to surprise the entire world, collaborate, and act together to curb the power of the Iranian regime. Both claim victory, both declare that Iran’s nuclear programme has been destroyed, and both boast of having changed the course of history. But can we, at this moment, say with certainty what the actual outcomes of the Israeli and American strikes are? Can we truly declare that the facility at Fordow was indeed destroyed, and that hundreds of kilograms of enriched uranium were buried deep underground? Can we guarantee, without hesitation, that the Iranians have indeed been set back by years in their ability to revive their nuclear programme and their efforts to manufacture destructive ballistic missiles?As of now, the answer to all these questions is no. Nothing can be promised to anyone, and some time will pass before the real, tangible damage caused by Israeli and American air forces becomes clear — and before Israeli intelligence can definitively assess the status of Iran’s nuclear programme. Still, that hasn’t stopped Netanyahu and Trump from issuing dramatic and unequivocal declarations, promising a new West Asia and a weakened Iranian regime. The Israeli and American leaders need this media bravado — mainly to justify the strategic decisions they made over the past two weeks, and also to rally their base around them. Netanyahu, who has governed Israel almost continuously since 2009, crowned himself the leading fighter against Iran’s nuclear ambitions and declared in the past that he wants to be remembered as the “Defender of Israel”. But it was precisely during his watch that, on Oct 7, 2023, the greatest security disaster in the history of Zionism occurred, when Hamas terrorists attacked Israel, massacred civilians, and abducted hundreds of innocents into Gaza. That event exposed — within a single day — the longstanding Israeli procrastination that avoided dealing decisively with Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon. And the full responsibility for that lies with Netanyahu.Since the disaster, Israel’s PM has tried to craft a narrative that places the blame for the Oct 7 catastrophe mostly on the security establishment — while avoiding true accountability for the failure. The war with Iran is supposed to help Netanyahu repair his damaged security image and regain the support of his voters who abandoned him after the formation of the current right-wing govt — considered one of the worst in Israel’s history.As for Trump — well, Trump is Trump, and perhaps there’s no need to elaborate further. Anyone who follows the American president’s behaviour understands we are dealing with a complex and fascinating character, unrecognisable from any previous American president. His constant desire to appear as a resolute leader has led him in recent days to issue declarations that remain unverified, and whose truthfulness is still uncertain. Time will tell, it seems.And what about the future? It remains just as murky — though we are already seeing early signs of optimism regarding the expansion of the moderate axis in West Asia. Despite the uncertainty surrounding some of Iran’s capabilities, it’s clear that Iran, after 12 days of Israeli attacks, is no longer the same Iran, and its abilities are far less threatening to regional countries. This could ultimately lead to an expansion of the Abraham Accords, possibly including additional countries such as Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, and Syria. The dramatic developments of the past two weeks have undoubtedly shifted the regional playing field — and now more than ever, Trump’s leadership and determination are being put to the test. If he succeeds in leading a broad regional settlement between Israel and its neighbours, then the American president’s next flight should be to Stockholm — to receive the Nobel Peace Prize. But that depends heavily on his ability to persuade Netanyahu to take bold steps — ones that will also address the unresolved Palestinian issue. Perhaps Fordow has gone up in flames, but five million Palestinians living alongside Israel have not disappeared — and never will. Nor will the need to solve their problems.The writer is co-founder, Coalition for Regional Security, and a columnist based in Tel Aviv