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equilibrium-modeling

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This article reframes pricing as a negotiation rather than a prediction, showing how price emerges from tensions between product reality, market dynamics, and buyer behavior. It introduces negotiation-aware ML, value decomposition, and equilibrium modeling to build transparent, human-aligned pricing systems.

  • Updated Dec 11, 2025

An analytical essay on why prediction-based models fail in reflexive, unstable systems. This article argues that accuracy collapses when models influence behavior, and proposes equilibrium and force-based modeling as a more robust framework for understanding pressure, instability, and transitions in AI-shaped systems.

  • Updated Dec 13, 2025

A systems-thinking essay that explains why failure rarely happens suddenly. It shows how slow drift, accumulating pressure, and weakening buffers push systems toward collapse long before outcomes change, and why prediction-focused analytics miss the most important phase of failure.

  • Updated Dec 16, 2025

An interpretable system that models the future of work as an equilibrium under AI-driven forces. Instead of predicting job loss, it decomposes workforce disruption into automation pressure, adaptability, skill transferability, demand, and AI augmentation to explain stability, tension, and transition paths by 2030.

  • Updated Dec 13, 2025
  • Python

An interpretable battery health engine that detects hidden points of no return instead of just predicting health %. It models stress, buffer, and degradation intensity, discovers Stable/Drifting/Irreversible regimes via GMM, and learns simple Decision Tree thresholds, with a Streamlit app for diagnostics and what-if scenarios.

  • Updated Dec 16, 2025
  • Python

A systems-thinking essay that reframes failure as a gradual transition rather than a discrete outcome. It explains how pressure accumulation, weakening buffers, and hidden instability precede visible collapse, and why prediction-based models arrive too late to prevent failure in human-centered systems.

  • Updated Dec 14, 2025

A systems-thinking essay arguing that most optimization quietly trades away buffers, slack, and resilience to make present metrics look better. It reframes efficiency as borrowing stability from the future, and shows how education, workforce, infrastructure, markets, and hardware all get optimized into fragility.

  • Updated Dec 16, 2025

An early-warning system that models disasters as instability transitions rather than isolated events. It combines force-based instability modeling with an interpretable ML escalation-risk layer to detect when hazards become disasters due to exposure growth, response delays, and buffer collapse.

  • Updated Dec 15, 2025
  • Python

An interpretable early-warning engine that detects academic instability before grades collapse. Instead of predicting performance, it models pressure accumulation, buffer strength, and transition risk using attendance, engagement, and study load to explain fragility and identify high-leverage interventions.

  • Updated Dec 14, 2025
  • Python

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