INTEREST RATE CUTS
Dollar extends losses following its biggest decline in more than three weeks; here's what is fueling the weakness
U.S. dollar extended losses as slower-than-expected inflation data raised hopes for Federal Reserve rate cuts later this year. The greenback dipped sharply against major currencies like the euro, pound, yen, and South Korea’s won, which surged over 1% following U.S.-Korea forex talks. Investors now expect a rate cut by September as the Fed remains cautious. With April’s CPI rising just 0.2%, lower than forecasts, market sentiment quickly shifted. All eyes are now on upcoming U.S. retail sales and Powell’s speech. This story breaks down what’s driving dollar weakness and what it means for global markets.
Gold’s glow fades as inflation cools and China fears ease – where does gold go from here in 2025?
Gold prices drop as investors react to weaker U.S. inflation data and easing trade tensions between the U.S. and China. After a recent record high above $3,500 an ounce, gold is now trading around $3,232.50. Traders are watching the Federal Reserve closely, expecting possible rate cuts that could influence future gold movements. As the dollar weakens and risk appetite returns, the demand for gold as a safe haven slows. This detailed report breaks down how inflation, Fed policy, and global trade news are shaping gold’s outlook.
JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs cut back US recession forecasts after US-China announce tariff truce
Easing trade tensions between the US and China have prompted major brokerages like Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan to revise their US recession forecasts. Goldman Sachs reduced its recession estimate to 35%, while JP Morgan places the probability below 50%.
Gold falls as easing Sino-US trade woes dulls safe-haven appeal
Gold prices declined on Wednesday. This happened because of easing trade tensions between the United States and China. Demand for gold as a safe investment decreased. Markets are closely watching inflation data. This data will help assess the Federal Reserve's policy direction. Traders are also awaiting the Producer Price Index data. Spot silver, platinum, and palladium also experienced losses.
Hot Stocks: 3 stocks that may give returns between 12-35%
Analysts predict significant upside for Reliance Industries, IIFL Finance, and Tech Mahindra. Reliance is expected to benefit from improved O2C performance and potential Jio listing updates. IIFL Finance could see sharp rerating due to microfinance recovery and lower costs. Tech Mahindra's earnings growth potential is underestimated, with positive news expected regarding US policies.
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RINL seeks credit rating upgrade after paring debt
Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Ltd. (RINL) is engaging with rating agencies to potentially elevate its credit rating to BBB+ due to substantial debt reduction and improved financial performance. This upgrade is anticipated to enable the steelmaker to secure loans at significantly lower interest rates, potentially below 8.95%, thereby easing cash flow pressures and enhancing shareholder value for the Government of India.
Gold plunges over 3% as markets shift on easing U.S.-China tensions and cooling inflation — is now the time to buy or sell?
Gold prices rebound as investors shift focus to U.S. inflation data after a sharp selloff triggered by the U.S.-China trade truce. The temporary easing of tariffs lowered demand for haven assets like gold, but concerns over inflation brought prices back up, with spot gold trading above $3,250 an ounce. The dollar's earlier rally and rising Treasury yields pressured bullion, yet inflation fears may drive gold higher again. With rate cut expectations shrinking, investors are closely watching upcoming economic signals. This simple breakdown helps explain why gold prices are rising again, and what could happen next in the market.
U.S. stock futures today fall ahead of April inflation report as tariff rally fades and Fed rate cut hopes waver, with Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq futures down
U.S. stock futures dropped Tuesday morning as investor focus shifted from the recent U.S.-China tariff truce to the April CPI report, a key inflation update that could influence Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. While Monday saw a rally across major indexes, concerns are now rising over whether inflation will stall expected rate cuts. The Dow fell 176 points in early trade, while S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures also dipped. Market watchers are closely tracking CPI data, corporate earnings like Walmart, and Trump’s Saudi Arabia visit. Get the full story on how these events are shaping market sentiment.
PSU banks may take a hit on margins as interest rates dip
State-owned banks saw a 26% profit surge in FY25. However, net interest margins may face pressure this fiscal year. Banks like State Bank of India, Canara Bank, and Punjab National Bank anticipate lower margins. Geopolitical factors and potential US tariffs contribute to uncertainty. Credit growth forecasts are also tempered. Overall bank credit is expected to grow.
Market upside capped in near term as earnings downgrades loom: Pratik Gupta
Kotak Institutional Equities expresses caution on IT and metals due to US slowdown and valuation concerns. They prefer large-cap IT but see limited growth. Financial services, especially banks and NBFCs, are attractive. Life insurance and REITs also garner interest. Market upside is limited in the short term due to earnings growth and valuation.
Despite DeepSeek, Jensen Huang-led Nvidia is heading towards stardom; here's why
Nvidia's future appears bright, fueled by potential pro-business policies under a Trump administration and Treasury Secretary Bessent, including tax benefits for AI and quantum computing. Deregulation streamlining infrastructure projects would also benefit Nvidia's data center clients, potentially boosting hardware sales. Wall Street analysts maintain a strong 'Buy' rating, projecting a significant upside potential for the stock.
As you slept, gold prices fell; here’s what happened
Gold prices drop as the US-China tariff deal eases global trade tensions, leading to a sharp 3% fall in spot gold to $3,223.57 an ounce—its lowest level since May 1. The 90-day agreement to cut reciprocal tariffs by 115% pushed the U.S. dollar higher, reducing investor demand for safe-haven assets like gold. Analysts say short-term volatility will remain, but central banks might use this dip to increase gold holdings. With U.S. CPI data around the corner, all eyes are on the Federal Reserve’s next move. This developing story could impact gold prices even further.
Union Bank shares rise 4% after Q4 profit jumps 50%; management flags margin pressure
Union Bank of India reported a 50% YoY rise in Q4 net profit to Rs 4,985 crore, aided by higher non-interest income and lower provisions. However, the bank warned of NIM pressure due to potential RBI rate cuts. Loan growth missed FY25 targets, and operating expenses rose. Analysts remain bullish, with a 16% upside potential.
Charting the global economy: Chinese exports to the US slumped
Global central banks are responding to economic uncertainty fueled by US trade policies. The Bank of England cautiously cut interest rates, while the Federal Reserve held steady amidst tariff concerns.
Mark Carney in dire straits: Canada, one of the largest and richest countries in the world, added just 7,400 jobs in April as unemployment rate rises to 6.9%
Mark Carney in dire straits as Canada’s economy struggles with a slowdown in job growth. In April, the country added only 7,400 new jobs while the unemployment rate rose to 6.9%, its highest since November. U.S. trade tariffs on Canadian steel, aluminum, and autos are hitting hard, especially in manufacturing, which lost 31,000 jobs. Wage growth stayed flat and more people are struggling to find work. As pressure builds, many expect a Bank of Canada rate cut in June. This article breaks down all the key numbers, what’s causing the economic stress, and what might come next for Canada.
This is massive: Donald Trump calls Fed chair Jerome Powell a 'Fool' after rate cut decision, faces backlash
Donald Trump calls Jerome Powell a fool after the Federal Reserve decided to keep interest rates unchanged, sparking huge backlash. Trump, now President again, slammed Fed Chair Powell on Truth Social, claiming inflation is no longer a threat. He blamed Powell for stalling economic growth and ignoring real-time data like falling gas and grocery prices. Powell defended the move, saying inflation risks remain, especially with Trump’s recent tariffs. This heated clash puts the Fed’s independence in question and could affect future rate decisions, the 2026 economy, and voter sentiment. Here's what you need to know about this explosive standoff.
Trade game begins, first moves on board
The People's Bank of China cut interest rates amidst trade negotiations with the US, signaling a focus on growth targets despite uncertain impact on demand. Meanwhile, the US Federal Reserve held rates due to tariff-induced inflation concerns. With China facing a slowdown and the US grappling with inflation, both nations may eventually need fiscal measures to facilitate a trade settlement.
Bank of England cuts rates to 4.25% as it sees tariff hit to growth
The Bank of England reduced interest rates to 4.25% amidst a divided Monetary Policy Committee, influenced by concerns over U.S. tariffs and their impact on global economic growth. While some members advocated for a larger rate cut, others preferred to maintain the current rate.
US Federal Reserve likely to hold rates steady as pressures mount
The Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates unchanged, citing high uncertainty due to trade policies. Despite concerns over tariffs, recent data shows stable inflation and employment. Markets anticipate future rate cuts. Fed Chair Powell may face questions on trade, inflation, and President Trump’s criticisms during the press conference.
Cheaper home loan from Bank of Baroda: Lowest rate starts from 8% for these borrowers
Bank of Baroda has reduced home loan interest rates by 40 bps, starting at 8.00% p.a. for new borrowers, effective May 5, 2025. This reduction follows the RBI's policy rate cut, with revised rates applicable to fresh and home improvement loans above Rs 15 lakh. Concessions are available for women, young borrowers, and balance transfers.
Bold leap: Gold rises by Rs 2,000/10 gram as Fed buzz on rate cut grows. Is it time to sell on shine?
Gold prices surged over ₹2,000 per 10 grams on the MCX ahead of the US Fed meeting, driven by rate cut expectations and a weaker dollar index. Bond yields below Fed rates further supported the rally. Analysts expect short-term volatility within ₹93,000–₹96,000, with some calling it a profit-booking opportunity.
Baroda BNP Gilt Fund turns 23; AUM tops Rs 1,500 crore with 4X growth for investors
Baroda BNP Paribas Gilt Fund celebrates 23 years, surpassing Rs 1,500 crore in AUM. The fund has delivered strong returns, transforming an initial investment of Rs 10,000 into Rs 41,919.60 since inception. Managed by Gurvinder Singh Wasan and Prashant Pimple, the fund strategically invests in government securities and SDLs, aiming to capitalise on potential RBI rate cuts.
SBI research predicts aggressive rate cuts by RBI in FY26 amid benign inflation
SBI Research anticipates aggressive rate cuts by the RBI in FY26, potentially totaling 125 bps, driven by a 67-month low CPI inflation of 3.34% in March 2025.
Federal Reserve likely to defy Trump, keep rates unchanged this week
The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain current interest rates. This decision comes amid pressure from Donald Trump and scrutiny over inflation. Trump claims there is no inflation, but data suggests otherwise. Tariffs add complexity to the Fed's decision-making. Some economists predict rate cuts later in the year. Elon Musk has also criticized the Fed's spending.
US Federal Reserve likely to defy President Trump, keep rates unchanged this week
Despite pressure from President Trump to cut interest rates, the Federal Reserve is expected to hold steady, influenced by concerns over inflation and the potential impact of tariffs. Fed officials are wary after past misjudgments on inflation, preferring to wait for more economic data. The Fed's independence is under scrutiny, with criticism over spending and calls for a strategic reset.
Trump admin again pokes the Federal Reserve, Scott Bessent says it's time for Jerome Powell to cut rates
The Trump administration is pressuring the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent cites bond market signals as justification. President Trump has repeatedly criticized Fed Chair Jerome Powell. The Fed's next policy meeting is scheduled for May 7. Markets predict a possible rate cut no sooner than June.
RBI rate cuts to impact key profitability indicator of banks: Crisil
Crisil Ratings predicts a decline in banks' return on assets in fiscal year 2026. This is due to the Reserve Bank of India's rate cuts. The cuts will compress net interest margins. Loan interest rates will reduce faster than deposit rates. Credit costs have bottomed out. Competition for deposits will limit banks' ability to manage costs.
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