INDIA GDP FORECAST
US inflation starting to stir as Trump tariff threat looms
US consumer prices are expected to have increased in April, with economists anticipating a more pronounced impact from higher tariffs over time. This has led to growing consumer apprehension about inflation and the economy. Meanwhile, companies are navigating the challenge of mitigating tariff costs through price hikes while trying to avoid deterring consumers.
India stock market towers 245 times over Pakistan's: A gulf too wide to ignore
Geopolitical tensions between India and Pakistan, particularly after the Pahalgam attack and Operation Sindoor, have impacted their respective equity markets. India's Nifty50 has seen a relatively minor dip, while Pakistan's KSE-100 has experienced a significant plunge.
Sensex tumbles over 900 points, Nifty below 24,000 as investors turn cautious amid rising border tensions
Indian stock markets opened lower on Friday, with Sensex and Nifty declining due to heightened India-Pakistan tensions. Cross-border clashes, including missile strikes and drone attacks, have intensified, impacting investor sentiment and leading to widespread selling across sectors. Power Grid, ICICI Bank, and Reliance Industries experienced losses in early trade.
Macros are good but where is the market headed based on earnings, liquidity & PE multiples? Here’s the Citi view
Citi analysts predict single-digit market growth for FY25, with earnings expected to recover in subsequent years. Large private banks and downstream energy companies are currently bolstering performance, offsetting consumption weaknesses. Positive domestic flows and stabilizing FII trends support a constructive medium-term outlook, while potential tariff benefits and government spending could further aid growth.
India's appeal for investors dimmed but not derailed by conflict with Pakistan
Despite escalating tensions between India and Pakistan, analysts believe the impact on India's appeal to foreign investors will be limited. India's strong domestic consumption, dovish monetary policy, and focus on trade deals with countries like the UK and the U.S. are expected to sustain investor confidence.
India's appeal for investors dimmed but not derailed by conflict with Pakistan
Recent India-Pakistan tensions might affect foreign investment. However, analysts believe the impact will be limited. India's economy has little direct trade with Pakistan. Past conflicts had short-lived effects on Indian assets. Focus remains on trade deals, like the one with the U.K. and ongoing talks with the U.S. These deals and central bank policies will shape India's growth.
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Moody's cuts India growth forecast for 2025 to 6.3%
Moody's has reduced India's economic growth prediction for 2025 to 6.3 percent. This revision is due to policy changes and trade uncertainties. Geopolitical risks, including India-Pakistan tensions, also contribute. The IMF and World Bank have also lowered their growth forecasts for India. China's and US's economic growth are also expected to slow down.
UBS finds 4 reasons to be bullish on Indian stocks, picks 4 fav sectors
UBS forecasts an 8% Nifty 50 upside over the next year, driven by a Rs 7 trillion consumption stimulus, lower oil prices, resilient rural demand, and attractive valuations. The brokerage favours financials, autos, real estate, and consumption sectors, while remaining cautious on IT, industrials, and pharma due to global uncertainties.
Moody's sees risks from Indo-Pak tensions after cutting India's GDP growth forecast to 6.3% for 2025
Moody's Ratings has revised India's GDP growth forecast for 2025 downward to 6.3% due to anticipated global economic slowdown driven by US policy uncertainties and trade restrictions. Geopolitical tensions, including those between India and Pakistan, pose further downside risks. While India's 2026 growth projection remains at 6.5%, global trade and investment are expected to be dampened by these factors.
Indian bonds could offer better returns than stocks in near term: Bhanu Baweja, UBS Bank
I'm not sure the worst is over for the markets yet, as the base case for tariffs remains a difficult question. It's also possible that reciprocal tariffs could be reinstated on July 2. We assume 10% universal tariffs, with China's tariffs reduced from 145% to 60%, but even this isn't fully priced in.
A major economic shock could be awaiting Americans in the coming weeks; here's what reports say
Experts are watching for economic shocks after Trump's tariffs. Early data shows manufacturing slowdown and GDP contraction. Ports are busy now, but shipments from China are falling. Companies seek alternatives, but tariffs may hit consumers. Firms are pausing hiring and investment. The future impact of these tariffs remains uncertain for the US economy.
SBI expects inflation in India to remain below 3 per cent in the first quarter of current fiscal
A State Bank of India report forecasts India's retail inflation to remain below 3% until June 2025, driven by a significant drop in food prices. CPI inflation hit a 67-month low in March 2025. The bank anticipates an average CPI of 3.7-3.8% for FY26 and suggests the RBI consider cutting interest rates, as the economy enters a "Goldilocks period".
SBI research predicts aggressive rate cuts by RBI in FY26 amid benign inflation
SBI Research anticipates aggressive rate cuts by the RBI in FY26, potentially totaling 125 bps, driven by a 67-month low CPI inflation of 3.34% in March 2025.
India needs more guard rails to address concerns of equity in the wake of Trump’s trade war
Donald Trump's first 100 days were met with a US GDP contraction, defying growth expectations. This downturn, partly due to increased imports anticipating tariffs, raises concerns about a potential recession. Experts disagree on the long-term impact, but Trump's trade policies and global economic shifts pose challenges for India's growth prospects, requiring careful policy adjustments.
Aerospace & Defense Sector - A Multi-Decade Opportunity in the Making; HAL, BEL top buys
India's aerospace and defense sector shows significant growth. A major deal with France for Rafale-M jets strengthens national security and domestic manufacturing. The defense budget is increasing, creating opportunities for Indian companies. Defense exports are rising, with ambitious targets set for 2047. Hindustan Aeronautics and Bharat Electronics are well-positioned for growth. The sector presents a long-term investment opportunity.
S&P cuts US growth forecast sharply but rules out chances of a recession
S&P Global Ratings has revised its US GDP predictions. The forecast for 2025 is down to 1.5 percent. The projection for 2026 is now 1.7 percent. This adjustment follows uncertainties from US trade policies. S&P also lowered growth forecasts for India, Canada, and other nations. These changes reflect concerns about a potential global economic slowdown.
S&P cuts India's FY26 GDP growth forecast to 6.3% over US tariff uncertainty
S&P Global Ratings lowered India's GDP forecast for 2025-26 to 6.3% and 2026-27 to 6.5%, citing trade uncertainties and tariff measures, while also reducing growth projections for several major economies, including the US, China, and Japan, amid a potential global economic slowdown.
ETMarkets Smart Talk: Gold is more than a safe haven now - Pradeep Gupta on the rise of a new asset class leader
Gupta shares why gold's role in portfolios is evolving, how macroeconomic uncertainties and central bank actions are fuelling its rise, and what investors should keep in mind while allocating to this asset.
India doing well on a relative basis, but can’t escape growth slowdown due to tariff tantrum: Chetan Ahya
Morgan Stanley projects India's economic growth to slow to 5.7% in Q4 due to global trade tensions, despite strong domestic demand and government spending. While Asia ex-China shows rebounding shipping activity, caution is advised due to empty ships. Capital expenditure slowdown is expected, with monthly capital goods imports data serving as a key indicator.
How will US-China trade tensions impact global corporate capex & Asia's GDP growth? Chetan Ahya answers
Morgan Stanley economist Chetan Ahya predicts trade tensions will hurt global investment. Asia's GDP growth may fall from 4.8% to 3.6% by late 2025. The US may reduce tariffs, but uncertainty will remain. Tariffs on autos and semiconductors will affect Korea, Taiwan, and Japan. Pharma tariffs may impact India, China, and Japan.
MoF flags global uncertainty as risk to India's FY26 growth
The finance ministry has cautioned that global uncertainties pose a risk to India's FY26 growth, potentially delaying private sector investment. The ministry emphasised the need for proactive measures to foster a cycle of investment and growth.
BRICS set to meet over Trump trade policies
Senior diplomats from BRICS nations are convening in Brazil to strategize a unified response to escalating trade tensions fueled by US President Donald Trump's protectionist policies. The meeting occurs amidst concerns over the global economic impact of these tariffs, with the IMF recently downgrading growth forecasts.
Geopolitical tensions and trade war fears weigh on Indian markets: Ajay Bagga
Indian markets face pressure due to escalating geopolitical tensions, particularly between India and Pakistan, and the ongoing U.S.-China trade war. Analysts predict potential GDP growth slowdown to 6.3–6.5% for 2025, with expectations of two more RBI rate cuts to support the economy.
India could grow at 6.5% in FY26; falling crude prices to support growth: EY
EY forecasts India's economy could grow by 6.5% in the current fiscal year, driven by lower crude oil prices, which are expected to ease inflation and support growth despite global trade tensions. The report highlights four key factors: reduced exports, global slowdown, falling crude prices, and global excess production. EY expects crude oil prices to remain in the range of $60-65 per barrel, benefiting India.
Pakistan stock market falls 2% after India suspends Indus Waters Treaty over Pahalgam terror attack
The Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) dropped sharply after India imposed tough diplomatic measures in response to the Pahalgam terror attack. The KSE-100 index fell 2.12%, reflecting investor concern. Meanwhile, Indian markets showed resilience, despite geopolitical tensions and IMF's downgraded growth forecast for Pakistan.
India's growth prospects to be impacted adversely over risk of prolonged recession due to trade wars, warns RBI
Reserve Bank of India's Nagesh Kumar raised concerns about trade wars. He said global recession poses a serious risk. This situation could adversely affect India's economic growth. The World Trade Organization has issued warnings about declining world trade. Global GDP growth forecasts may face downward revisions. These revisions are due to reciprocal tariffs and ongoing trade disputes.
India's growth aim cuts do not throw it out of 'fastest growing economy' race
Despite downward revisions from global financial institutions like the IMF and World Bank, India is expected to maintain its position as the fastest-growing major economy. Projections for India’s GDP growth in 2025-26 range between 6.2 per cent and 6.7 per cent. These revisions reflect a broader global economic slowdown, sluggish recovery in China, and U.S. trade policy changes.
World Bank cuts India’s FY26 growth aim; IMF sees world leaning on New Delhi
India Growth Forecast: The World Bank has revised India's economic growth forecast for FY26 to 6.3%, citing global economic weakness and policy uncertainty. This adjustment follows a similar move by the IMF, which also lowered India's GDP forecast. South Asia's overall growth prospects have weakened, with projections downgraded for most countries in the region due to rising global uncertainty and domestic weaknesses.
India to slow but lead world: IMF
The IMF has lowered India's FY26 growth forecast to 6.2% due to trade tensions and US tariffs, while still projecting India as the fastest-growing economy. Global growth for 2025 is also reduced to 2.8%. Despite this, India's 2025 outlook remains stable, supported by private consumption. Inflation is expected to decrease to 4.2% in FY26 and 4.1% in FY27.
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