CHINA STIMULUS
Geo-political easing, global truce to trigger market optimism: Sunil Subramaniam
Market expert Sunil Subramaniam suggests a decisive market shift driven by easing global uncertainties like the Indo-Pak ceasefire, US-China trade talks, and Russia-Ukraine dialogue. Improved domestic factors, including reduced oil prices and strong GST collections, are also fueling optimism. He anticipates growth will now be the primary investment driver, potentially replicating a previous bull run.
Steel Stocks: Uptick in domestic demand, dip in Chinese exports & dip in coal prices: will these push steel stocks up?
Indian steel companies faced challenges due to fears of a global slowdown and rising imports, which impact profitability. However, a revival is expected in the upcoming quarters, driven by lower raw material costs and a safeguard duty on imports. Long-term growth is anticipated, supported by infrastructure demand and softening Chinese exports, though global uncertainties remain a major concern.
US stock market today: Wall Street slips as Dow drops 113 points, S&P 500 and Nasdaq dip 0.3%—Trump eyes 80% China tariff, UK trade deal offers hope — will trade talks calm the storm or fuel more turmoil?
US stock market today: Stocks fall Friday as traders grow cautious ahead of key U.S.-China trade talks. The Dow dipped 113 points, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both slipped 0.3%. Tensions remain high with President Trump suggesting an 80% tariff on China, down from the current 145%. Meanwhile, a new trade deal with the U.K. offers hope but uncertainty looms. Companies like Coinbase, Expedia, and Monster Beverage also moved on weak earnings. Investors are watching closely as the weekend's talks could shape markets going forward. Will the China talks ease pressure, or spark more volatility?
Defence stocks, consumer staples emerging as reliable plays for FY26: Religare's Dr Ravi Singh
Some Investors are shifting toward safe-haven assets like gold, U.S. Treasuries, and defensive sectors such as healthcare and consumer staples. Geographic diversification, higher cash holdings, and exposure to real assets like commodities and real estate offer protection.
Is China's economic growth sustainable amid uncertain trade relations and domestic challenges?
China's Q1 2025 GDP grew by 5.4% despite trade war challenges, driven by exports and manufacturing. Stimulus measures aim to counter trade tensions, but concerns remain about weak domestic demand and a strained property market. The focus shifts to boosting internal consumption, attracting foreign investment, and expanding ties with the 'global south'.
Trade game begins, first moves on board
The People's Bank of China cut interest rates amidst trade negotiations with the US, signaling a focus on growth targets despite uncertain impact on demand. Meanwhile, the US Federal Reserve held rates due to tariff-induced inflation concerns. With China facing a slowdown and the US grappling with inflation, both nations may eventually need fiscal measures to facilitate a trade settlement.
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China rolls out stimulus, ahead of talks with US
China revealed steps to tackle economic impact of trade tensions with the US. The central bank will cut interest rates and reduce bank reserve needs. This aims to boost lending and support businesses. Talks between US and China are planned in Geneva. Both economies show signs of strain. China hopes to safeguard its interests.
Market Wrap: D-Street ends higher after India strikes Pakistan over Pahalgam attack; Sensex adds 106 pts, Nifty above 24,400
Indian benchmark indices ended higher on Wednesday, rebounding from early losses, amid heightened geopolitical tensions following India’s strikes on Pakistan and Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK) under Operation Sindoor, launched in retaliation for last month’s attack in Kashmir.
China stock market: Shanghai, Hong Kong show gains as investors eye crucial trade deal with USA
China's government bond yields showed mixed reactions to the rate decision. One-year bond yield dropped 1.45 bps, while the 10-year yield rose 2 bps.
Indian bonds could offer better returns than stocks in near term: Bhanu Baweja, UBS Bank
I'm not sure the worst is over for the markets yet, as the base case for tariffs remains a difficult question. It's also possible that reciprocal tariffs could be reinstated on July 2. We assume 10% universal tariffs, with China's tariffs reduced from 145% to 60%, but even this isn't fully priced in.
China's services growth hits 7-month low as tariffs bite, Caixin PMI shows
China's services sector experienced its slowest expansion in seven months in April, as the Caixin PMI fell to 50.7, impacted by U.S. tariffs and subdued business sentiment. New business growth weakened, leading to job cuts and price reductions by service providers. Policymakers are urged to take action to mitigate the effects of the ongoing trade standoff.
Global economy already feeling drag from Trump tariffs
President Trump's tariffs are disrupting the global economy, causing businesses to cut sales targets and revise plans amid uncertainty. Major economies are downgrading growth forecasts, and factory activity is slowing. While some countries like India may benefit, the tariffs are largely seen as a negative shock, potentially leading to central bank interventions and prompting economic reforms.
How Trump tariffs have begun to bite China
Despite China's attempts to downplay the impact, Trump tariffs are beginning to affect its economy, as evidenced by shrinking factory activity and potential copper shortages. In response to these economic pressures, China is creating a 'whitelist' of US-made products that will be exempted from its tariffs, signaling a quiet effort to ease the trade war's impact.
How will US-China trade tensions impact global corporate capex & Asia's GDP growth? Chetan Ahya answers
Morgan Stanley economist Chetan Ahya predicts trade tensions will hurt global investment. Asia's GDP growth may fall from 4.8% to 3.6% by late 2025. The US may reduce tariffs, but uncertainty will remain. Tariffs on autos and semiconductors will affect Korea, Taiwan, and Japan. Pharma tariffs may impact India, China, and Japan.
Market Wrap: D-Street ends flat as Kashmir jitters offset US trade deal optimism; Sensex sheds 46 points, Nifty below 24,350
Indian shares ended muted on Wednesday as caution stemming from escalating geopolitical tensions with Pakistan offset optimism over progress in U.S. trade negotiations. Gains in heavyweight HDFC Bank helped cushion the impact, while Bajaj Finance declined despite reporting a rise in fourth-quarter profit.
China stocks inch lower, Hong Kong up slightly as investors assess tariff impact
China stocks fell slightly on Tuesday, while Hong Kong shares edged up as investors refrained from making big bets until there is more clarity on U.S. tariff plans and their impact on the Chinese economy.
China, HK stocks flat; rebound fades amid no new stimulus to counter US tariffs
China and Hong Kong stocks barely moved on Monday after Beijing pledged to stabilise capital markets without announcing fresh stimulus to counter the hefty U.S. tariffs.
Global mutual funds recover post Tariff lows. How long will momentum sustain?
Global markets have rebounded, fueled by a robust U.S. economy, resilient global growth, and significant European fiscal stimulus. While some international funds have delivered double-digit returns recently, experts advise caution, emphasising the importance of diversification and a focus on long-term fundamentals. India's strong growth and Europe's fiscal support make them attractive options.
GIFT Nifty up 150 points; here's the trading setup for today's session
The holiday-shortened week brings focus on monthly auto sales data, IIP, and manufacturing PMI. Geopolitical tensions between India and Pakistan remain a key concern. Technically, 23900-23800 acts as crucial support; breaching it could lead to a correction. FIIs turned net buyers, while DIIs sold shares. The rupee weakened amid geopolitical concerns.
Asian stocks edge up in cautious open, futures dip
Japanese and Australian stocks opened higher, while US equity-index futures dropped 0.5% in early trading Monday. Gold declined 0.3% while Treasuries and the dollar were steady.
US economy was already sputtering before trade pain from Trump's tariffs kicked in
Global economy faces challenges in early 2025. US GDP growth slows down significantly. Trade tensions and tariff policies impact international markets. Canada anticipates election amid trade war with US. China's industrial profits rebound, but tariffs pose risks. Europe focuses on GDP and inflation data. Latin America monitors economic indicators and central bank decisions.
The Ripple Effect of US tariffs: Economic growth, inflation, and global trade dynamics
US tariffs risk slowing growth, clouding inflation outlook, and weakening the dollar. Treasury yields rise amid capital flight. Global fiscal stimulus builds, boosting gold. Multinational and domestic consumption-focused companies could outperform as uncertainty and stagflation risks rise.
India could grow at 6.5% in FY26; falling crude prices to support growth: EY
EY forecasts India's economy could grow by 6.5% in the current fiscal year, driven by lower crude oil prices, which are expected to ease inflation and support growth despite global trade tensions. The report highlights four key factors: reduced exports, global slowdown, falling crude prices, and global excess production. EY expects crude oil prices to remain in the range of $60-65 per barrel, benefiting India.
Bitcoin is digital equivalent of gold, showing signs of decoupling from Nasdaq: Jefferies' Chris Wood
As bond yields rise and geopolitical tensions intensify, Bitcoin is showing signs of evolving into a digital safe-haven like gold. Jefferies' Chris Wood notes Bitcoin’s recent divergence from Nasdaq as a key milestone in its store-of-value credibility.
IT sector faces limited upside amid global uncertainty and tariff risks: Sandip Sabharwal
I would think that the downsides could be limited for many of these companies given the fact that they are zero debt, most of them, and cash flow generating companies with a decent dividend yield, but the upside also is limited given the lack of visibility.
Trade war uncertainty dampening investment appetite globally: Katrina Ell
So, even though India is less affected from an export point of view because exports are a smaller share of the economy compared to other parts of Asia, in particular Southeast Asia, India is still caught up and we are seeing slightly weaker growth projections expected for this year.
UBS upgrades India to neutral but still favors China: 4 reasons why
UBS has strategically moved away from globally exposed markets, opting instead for those driven by local dynamics. Its revised scorecard favors economies with stable earnings, minimal vulnerability to global trade disruptions, and strong bottom-up analyst sentiment—making China and Indonesia key beneficiaries of this shift in capital allocation.
Sleeping dragon! China's stock market gave 0 returns in 18 years even as GDP doubled, Nifty soared 500%
Despite China's impressive economic growth, its stock market has yielded negligible returns for investors over the past 18 years. While the S&P 500 and Nifty 50 surged, the Shanghai Composite and Hang Seng indices stagnated.
Trump’s tariff tantrums: Expect modest returns from the stock market in CY25
Trump’s aggressive reciprocal tariffs triggered market panic, inflation concerns, and fears of stagflation, threatening global growth. India, with domestic-driven demand, may stay resilient. However, modest stock market returns are expected unless earnings rebound. Investors may prefer fairly valued domestic sectors.
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