RIL Q1 results can trigger rally in Reliance Industries shares, predicts CLSA

Shares of India’s most valued company, Reliance Industries (RIL), which have remained largely flat over the past year, could find a trigger in its Q1 results, likely to be announced next month, according to global brokerage firm CLSA.

“Reliance Industries is entering an exciting period, beginning with its 1QFY26 earnings, where we expect to see notable improvements in KPIs across its key businesses,” CLSA analyst Vikash Kumar Jain said in a note to investors.

CLSA has reiterated its ‘Outperform’ rating on the stock, with a 14% upside and a target price of Rs 1,650.

After a muted FY25, CLSA analyst Vikash Kumar Jain anticipates a notable improvement across all of Reliance’s businesses starting from Q1, which could reignite investor interest in the stock.

“The drag in performance last year was partially due to operational streamlining in its retail operations, which is now over. We expect retail to report year-on-year EBITDA growth in the high teens starting from Q1, as the benefits of the streamlining become visible. On the telecom front, Jio added 2.6 million mobile subscribers in April 2025, according to the latest TRAI data,” Jain said.

He added that Reliance’s much-awaited AGM, likely to be held in August or September, will be a key event, closely watched for Mukesh Ambani’s speech. It may offer hints on the upcoming Jio IPO, along with potential announcements related to scaling up in quick commerce, FMCG, and new energy.

Also Read | Adani Total Gas, Reliance's Jio-bp partner to offer each other’s fuels in select outlets

CLSA expects Reliance Retail to report year-on-year EBITDA growth in the high teens starting from Q1, as the benefits of operational streamlining begin to reflect in the numbers.

On the telecom front, Jio added 2.6 million mobile subscribers in April 2025, according to the latest TRAI data.

“The addition of broadband subscribers (including AirFiber) will be over and above this, which could result in approximately 9–10 million subscriber additions in Q1—compared to just 6 million across all four quarters of FY25. Our GRM marker for Reliance indicates a US$1.1/bbl QoQ gain, which bodes well for the O2C segment,” CLSA noted.

On Reliance Retail, the brokerage added that the return of strong profit growth from Q1 onwards should positively influence valuations for the unit.

RIL shares were trading over 1% higher at Rs 1,468 on BSE.