Haastile on the Redlegs...
Breakdown of the Current State of the Cincinnati Reds
“Unexpected Leader Emerging” # 8 remarkably it came at the MLB level. I thought it was fitting that rookie Mike Leake was the first starter to get rewarded with a win. He has been the most consistent pitcher while facing the monumental task of learning professional baseball not at Sarasota, Dayton, or Carolina but right in GABP. He had turned in two gritty performances, both quality starts (7ip 3ER or less), prior to Thursday. He managed to pitch into the 7th with 3 earned runs or less again on Thursday. A two run shot in the 7th put his totals at 7 ip 5 ER. manages his pitch count, plays such good defense that Chris Welsh stated he would win a gold glove before his career is over and don't forget he's hitting .500. While the Reds pitching staff search for their groove an unexpected leader may be emerging. (CNATI.com) The Good: The Bad: There have been 55 starting pitchers that have recorded a start in the National League thus far in the season. Ranked in ERA Reds starters look like this: 44- Bronson Arroyo (4.95 ERA) 45- Johnny Cueto (5.06 ERA) 47- Homer Bailey (7.47 ERA) 55 (last) Aaron Harang (8.31 ERA) Team Batting Avg-.236 (12/16 in NL) Team ERA: 6.03- (14/16 in NL) The Ugly:
April 23, 2010
The Reds starting pitching staff tallied their first W on Thursday’s 8-5 victory over the LA Dodgers.
The win's significance doesn't stop there. Mike Leake earned his first career professional win and
Not a flawless performance but an effective one. He gets deep into ballgames, keeps the Reds in it, 
“15 Game Review: The Good, Bad, and Ugly” # 7
April 22, 2010
“Play of Game Belongs to Bruce” # 6
April 21, 2010
The Reds offense took a 5-game losing streak’s worth of frustration out on 2003 First rounder Chad Billingsley
and the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Reds offense came alive for 11 runs, which was just enough to beat the Red-
killing Dodgers 11-9. The Dodgers had won 12 of the past 14 games against the Reds. The player and play of the
game belongs Jay Bruce. Jay Bruce hit two homeruns in Sunday’s loss to the Pirates and that may have been just
the confidence boost he needed. Bruce brought some swagger to GABP tonight. In his first plate appearance he
loosely waved his bat in his stance before lacing an RBI double to the wall. Bruce ran down a rocket off of Ronnie
Belliard in the top of the 8th that would have almost certainly scored a go-ahead run for the Dodgers. Most people would have dubbed the 8th inning grab the play of the game but I think Bruce had an even better one. In his young
career, Bruce has had trouble with swinging at pitches out of the zone. Pitchers know that he will likely swing at
marginal pitches, significantly lowering the amount of good looks Bruce get per at bat. Bruce came to bat in the
bottom of the ninth with one out in a 9-9 tie. He worked a 3-2 count off Ramon Troncoso. The pay-off pitch was low.
Barely. If Troncoso did his scouting homework he probably thought a pitch just out of the zone was as good as dead
center with Bruce at that plate. But Bruce calmly watched the ball into Russell Martin’s glove and trotted down to
first. He later scored the go-ahead and game-winning run on a Paul Janish single. A sign that Bruce is seeing the
ball and has brighter times ahead. On a night full of offensive fireworks, I’ll take Bruce’s free pass as play of the
game…
“Monday Reds Fantasy News” # 5
April 19, 2010
Mondays will be designated for Fantasy news and trends for Reds players.
FANTASY BASEBALL: HOW IT WORKS
For the first Monday I will include this brief overview for how fantasy baseball works: ESPN's most
popular fantasy baseball format is a ten team H2H (head to head). Ten "owners" draft 25 players including
12 hitters, 6 starting pitchers, 4 relief pitchers, and three bench players or something close to that
combination. Each team gets matched up to face another team every week and the winner is decided by
what is called a 6X6 (six offensive categories and six pitching categories) scoring system. A team total or
average is created from the following six offensive categories include batting average, RBIs, Runs,
Homeruns, Stolen Bases, and OPS (on base percentage + slugging percentage). Another team total or
average is created from the following six pitching categories: ERA, Strikeouts, WHIP (walks and hits per
inning pitched, Wins, Saves, and Holds. If you carry more than 6 total categories you get a W for the
week. Top 4 teams then play for the championship in a 3 week playoff system.
THIS WEEK'S TREND
Joey Votto is the focus of this week's trend. Joey Votto is the most productive hitter on the Reds and
is already Cincinnati’s highest valued fantasy player according to his 41.4 Average Draft Postion (meaning
on average he was the 41st player taken in fantasy leagues) on ESPN.com. Most fantasy players expected
Votto to hit 25-35 homeruns, drive in some runs, and hit for a high average. What they did not expect is
Votto to help them is the stolen base category. Joey Votto stole 4 bases this week vaulting him to 2nd in
the NL in stolen bases. Votto is now on pace to steal 50 bags this season. Now that won't happen. But
what could happen is Votto could go for 15-20 sbs which could be a real asset for his owners. Votto stole
40 bases over two seasons from 2006 through 2008, proving that his recent thievery is not an aberration.
Expect Votto and the Reds as a whole to keep running the bases in an attempt to jump-start their anemic
offense.
“Blame it on Luck?” # 4
April 17, 2010
Francisco Cordero allows 2 runs in the 9th blowing a 4-3 lead for 4th straight Reds loss. The Reds
were seemingly in control but blown saves are a part of the game and hopefully this is a rare off-
night for Cordero. He’s not the most dominating closer in the game but he has been reliable enough
for the Reds and hopefully this can be chalked up to “one of those nights” and nothing beyond that.
Cueto continued the theme of high pitch counts and early departures for Reds starters but he did
limit the Bucs to three earned runs and kept his team in it. The middle of the order, Cabrera, Votto,
and Phillips, were sharp accounting for all of the Reds hits and runs but the offense as a whole
remains generally unimpressive.
Jay Bruce looks terrible. His swing appears long and slow and he commits to pitches way too early.
He is guessing up there and pitchers know it. He started the season hitting the ball hard but right at
people and was a victim of tough luck. But for the past few games he has been overmatched and
luck hasn’t played any part in his lack of production. In spring training, a lot of people, including
myself said he held the key to the Reds success this season and I hope he gets it together and
sooner rather than later. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Reds let him take him a short tour with the
Louisville Bats if he doesn’t start improving at the plate. Playing a guy everyday with a batting avg.
around .150 is hard to defend no matter how much talent the kid has. Reds fans know he’s young
and we know his potential but isn’t that why players work out the kinks in the minors?
“Leaks in Pittsburgh, Rains in Louisville” # 3
The Reds kicked off a series against their fellow NL Central perennial cellar dweller rival, the Aroldis Chapman’s Lousiville Slugger Field debut got pushed back to this afternoon after a Friday night
April 16, 2010
Pittsburgh Pirates. The two teams combine for 27 straight losing seasons. Cincinnati has finished
under .500 for nine in a row while Pittsburgh boasts 18 straight losing seasons. The Reds are hoping to
snap that streak in 2010 but nothing is guaranteed. Mike Leake took the ball for the Reds and got
rocked early. He gave up three earned runs in the first two innings. However, as the game wore on, Leake earned his reputation. Leake started to find his groove in the 3rd and 4th and managed to string
together five straight scoreless innings. His final line was seven innings 3 earned runs, 7 hits, 5 walks. Not
the prettiest line but a quality start none the less- something the past four Reds starters had not managed
to get. Leake’s reputation is he's wise beyond his years, savvy, and hard to rattle. It was that reputation that gave him the chance to be the 21st player to skip the minor leagues entirely. Last night Leake never
lost his composure after getting hit hard early, kept battling, stuck to the game-plan, and ended up with a
quality start. Leake also dropped his entire professional batting average to .750 after a 1-2 night. Unfazed.
rain delay. The fans packed into Slugger Field as the rain poured down on the field, a sign that Aroldis has
a General Manager’s favorite attribute, the ability to sell tickets.
“A Pair of Aces” # 2
April 15, 2010
It was a match-up of “aces” In the final leg of a 4-game series between the Marlins and Reds.
I’m afraid there was only one ace on the field and that was Josh Johnson of Florida. Johnson is
coming off a breakout year in 09 when he went 15-5 with a 3.23 ERA. Tonight he threw six
innings of one run ball with 10 strikeouts in true ace fashion. As for Harang, I like the term
opening-day starter instead of ace. The Reds opening day starter gave up 10 hits and 8 runs in 4
innings to an underrated Marlins offense. As much as I root for him to have a comeback year I
refuse to call him the Reds ace coming off a 6-14 record in 2009 and 6-17 record in 2008. I see
him as more of a solid back of the rotation innings-eater than a number one. The problem is
Aaron Harang isn’t getting paid like a back of the rotation innings eater. His 2010 salary is all of 14
million dollars. That should certainly buy more than 8 runs in 14 innings. 2010 is Harang’s last
guaranteed year with Reds but he has a 14 million dollar club option with a 2 million buyout for
2011. That means if the Reds wish to keep Harang next year it will cost them another 14 mil and
if they choose to part ways they can buy him out for 2 mil. I believe there is zero chance the
Reds pick up that option in 2011 meaning the Reds will have to pay him 2 mil to NOT play-
ultimately meaning Harang is very expendable. Making him even more expendable are two guys
named Aroldis Chapman and Edison Volquez. Edison Volquez is coming off Tommy John Surgery
and should be ready by the All-Star break. Aroldis Chapman is fine-tuning his skills at AAA
Louisville and it shouldn’t take him too long to force his way to the big league club. I hope as
much as anyone Aaron Harang has a huge bounce-back year but I’m betting he will be gone by the
all-star break regardless of his performance. Bronson Arroyo is in a similar situation and is in the
final guaranteed year of contract. He makes just over 10 million in 2010 with a club option for
2011. The difference is Arroyo is coming off back to back 15 win seasons and was one of the best
in all of baseball the 2nd half of last year. He may actually earn his option in 2011 but it will be
interesting to see what the Reds do. We may see a 2011 rotation of:
Volquez/Cueto/Chapman/Leake/Bailey- definitely would be intriguing.
Back to Harang- I predict he gets dealt near the trade deadline for a decent but not elite prospect
as one or both of Edison Volquez and Aroldis Chapman become ready to take the stage. Either
one I would have no problem calling “Ace” rather than Opening Day starter…
Having explained why I think Harang will be traded, I don’t want to give up on his 2010 season so
soon. I know how early it is and I know how important he is to the Reds. For some perspective
on how early it is in the MLB season- 10 MLB games in a baseball season is equivalent to one game
in an NFL season or two games in a NCAA basketball season…
Mike Leake gets the nod tomorrow as the Reds travel to Pittsburgh for a 7:10 start while Aroldis
Chapman makes his Louisville debut at the same time.
Introduction # 1
April 15, 2010
This is my first entry on "Haastile on the Redlegs." It's April and I am optimistic. I think this
team has a real chance to contend but I have said that every year for the last nine, like every
good baseball fan does. We, Reds fans, are (have to be) eternal optimists. So this year, like
every year, is "our year" and I am excited to be a part of it. I will combine the first nine games
into one entry but I will stay up to date from here on. The Reds have played nine games and are 5-
4 and I think I can speak for most fans and say I am plenty pleased with that record given our play
and level of competition. Carpenter and Wainwright is a hell of a way to start a season and it's
not a surprise to anyone we dropped the first two. But since then the team has played gritty
baseball and won 5 of 7. The bats haven't blown anyone away and the pitching has been solid
which is what most expect out of this team on both accounts. I think the middle of the order will
continue to improve and produce runs without relying on the homerun. Surprisingly, a vast
majority of the reds runs so far have come via the longball but this team doesn't have the
firepower to rely on homeruns for an entire season. I imagine/hope will we see more stolen
bases, hit and runs, and get em on, get em over, and get em in baseball for the remainder of the
season. The Reds starting pitching staff has the third lowest ERA in the National League and I
expect they will hover around that area for the remainder of the season. Meaning the Reds
offense won't need four homeruns a game to win but they will have to cut down on strikeouts
(63) and improve their on-base percentage (.309) putting them in the bottom fourth of the
league in both categories. I plan to do this blog by writing my thoughts on a game to game basis-
Should be an exciting season and with a little bit of luck a winning one as well. A couple of lanky
pitchers go tonight with Aaron Harang (0-1 4.50) and the Reds facing Marlins ace Josh Johnson (0-
1 6.30) tonight at 7:10. The Cuban Missle brings "Chapmania" to Louisville tomorrow to play in
front of a sold out crowd...
Upcoming Reds Schedule
| April 20th 7:10 | Dodgers at Reds | Chad Billingsley vs. Homer Bailey |
| April 21st 7:10 | Dodgers at Reds | Hiroki Kuroda vs. Aaron Harang |
| April 22nd 7:10 | Dodgers at Reds | Vicente Padilla vs. Mike Leake |
| April 23rd 7:10 | Padres at Reds | Kevin Correia vs. Johnny Cueto |
Sports Illustrated: MLB
� 2010 Cable News Network LP, LLLP.