Refugees in Germany

I am not very well informed on the skill sets of the refugees that have been allowed to stay. In general I think immigration is beneficial.

The effect on aggregate income (even aggregate income per capita) will likely be positive; but distributive effects might lead to discontent

it very much depends on the degree to which the refugees eventually become integrated and productive. Not clear at this point.

This was an incredible humanitarian move but the economics are unclear. They are accepting mainly unskilled and often traumatized people.

This is a fairly skilled and young group, precisely the right mixture of human capital. Of course, there are some losers and usual frictions

I think it will take more than a decade for the net economic benefits to appear.

I have no theoretcial guidance to anser the question

The outcome is highly contingent on the extent of labor market opening and on integration. No general assessment can be seriously made.

Aging Europe must find ways of coping with immigration; though the 2015 surge may have unleashed political forces with bad economic impact.

Direct effects likely negative, while indirect effects -ranging from fiscal stimuli to change in immigration policy- likely positive. Sum=?

The adjustment likely takes longer (even though German labor markets allow low entry wages). Eventually the average benefits will be > 0.

Depends on extent refugees' integration in labor market. If successful, benefits for pension system could outweigh social welfare costs.

Agree for migrants,esp w/ low birth rate as DE. Less clear w/ large ref influx. Key is quick right to work&access to education. DE too rigid
-see background information here
-see background information here
-see background information here

Net benefits from increased labor supply. Losses to some workers possible. Poor integration could lead to social unrest: safety nets needed

It will depend on their composition, how well they are integrated into labour markets, and other factors. Plus: which German citizens?

The economy will get bigger but maybe not per capita and there will be redistribution.

refugees are primarily young, which is good, but unqualified in things needed by German industry, which could offset benefits

Depends partly on integration policies. But evidence clear: immigrants bring dynamism, improve demography, net fiscal contributors.

The benefits of the immigration will depend on how well German society can provide education opportunities and integrate the refugees.

Most refugees lack the skills to be quickly integrated into the German labor market. EducatIon and integration policies will be key

Germany has very poor demographics and its population is set to contract. Taking in immigrants will have many long-term economic benefits.

This is a big plus given a sharply negative natural demography, but... Absorbing this population will be long and costly.