Saturday, November 02, 2013

Election 2008

2008 Presidential Race: Virginia

By THE NEW YORK TIMES November 4, 2008
Switch to another state: New York Times Rating: Leaning Obama

One of the redder of red states for more than 40 years, this has become the top take-back target for Mr. Obama. He has been pouring money into the state — which elected a Democrat to the Senate last year — and has become a frequent visitor. And polling suggests that it is paying off, with evidence that Mr. Obama is establishing a lead over Mr. McCain in a state that Mr. McCain should not have to worry about with three weeks left to go.

Recent Polling

  • Dates Organization Obama     McCain Error*
  • October 30, 2008 Mason-Dixon Polling & Research 47% 44 ± 4
  • October 28, 2008 CNN/Time/Opinion Research Corporation 53    44 ± 4
  • October 27, 2008 Marist College 51    47 ± 4
  • October 26, 2008 AP-GFK 49    42 ± 4
  • October 25, 2008 Washington Post 52    44 ± 4

Historic Election Results

  • Previous Elections Democratic Vote Republican Vote
  • 2004 Presidential Election Kerry 45.48% 53.68% Bush
  • 2000 Presidential Election Gore 44.44 52.47 Bush
  • 1996 Presidential Election Clinton 45.15 47.1 Dole
  • 1992 Presidential Election Clinton 40.59 44.97 Bush

Almanac of American Politics Profile

Virginia remains one of the more Republican states in presidential races, but not as solidly Republican as it once was. One of the redder of red states for more than 40 years, Democrats like Senator James Webb have been winning here in recent years. The large African-American population, along with the Washington suburbs in the northern part of the state leaning more and more Democratic, suggests that in 2008 Barack Obama has a chance to win the state.

Complete Profile »
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In 1996, Bill Clinton lost here by only 48 percent to 46 percent. In 2000, George W. Bush won by 52 percent to 44 percent. In 2004 Democrats, heartened by Mark Warner’s victory in the 2001 governor election, targeted the state early; John Kerry spent $1 million in advertising here in the spring and early summer. But in August the polls showed Bush well ahead, and Virginia dropped off the target list. Bush carried the state by a seemingly comfortable margin, 54 percent to 45 percent. But compared to 2000, he lost ground in Northern Virginia, which he lost 51 percent to 48 percent, while gaining ground in Hampton Roads (53 percent-46 percent) and the rest of the state (58 percent-41 percent).

Demographics

Ethnic Breakdown
White Black Hisp. Origin Other
70.2% 19.4% 4.7% 5.8%
Income
Va. National
Median Income $46,677 48451 46677
15-50K 39% 38 39%
50-100K 31% 298% 31%
> 100K 14% 14% 14
Workforce
Va. National
Blue Collar 22.1% 22.9% 22.1%
White Collar 63.7% 60.0% 63.7%
Education
Va. National
High School Grad. 81.5% 2984% 81.5%
College Grad. 29.5% 2727% 29.5%

Finances

Total Raised
John McCain $16,057,800.00
Barack Obama $7,558,970.00

Sources: Federal Election Commission;
The National Journal; Census Bureau; Bureau of Labor Statistics; Project Vote Smart

* Margin of Sampling Error